October 03, 2004
You Dropped A Bomb On Me!
Newsweek is out with our first glimpse of the effect Kerry’s debate win has had on the electorate, and I thought it appropriate to break out the old Gap Band funk classic (see this entry’s title), while I typed!
A couple of things to note. First, the 8% percentage points swing in Kerry/Edwards’ favor in both the three-way match up (w/ Nader), and the head-to-head with Bush/Cheney. Presently, Nader costs Kerry 1% percentage point among Registered Voters.
Second, are the negative 5% percentage point swing in Bush’s favorables, and the +8% percentage point swing in John Kerry’s favorables. Most likely, Dick ‘Big Time’ Cheney’s recent scare tactics contributed to his negative 7% percentage point swing in his favorable ratings, while the +11% percent swing in John ‘Trial Lawyer!’ Edward’s now impressive favorable ratings (50%-31%), should be scaring the heck out of the RoveVision boys with the VP Debate set for Tuesday in Cleveland, OH.
These trends are further replicated in each candidate’s Approval/Disapproval numbers, but what is most telling is the negative 7% percent swing among Register Voters on the Right Track/Wrong Track question (-3% RT/+4% WT) – which nearly equals Bush’s loss in support, and Kerry’s gain in support.
This decisively refutes the Bush apologists’ post-Debate whining that the analysis is weighted more towards ‘style’, than their newfound preference for ‘substance’. The pre-Debate spin from the Bush camp was that the President would clarify his plan for Iraq, and explain how it is the center of the War on Terror. Clearly, from this Newsweek poll, voters heard none of that from the President. Instead, they were persuasively enlighten on these critical issues by his opponent, a man with a firm grasp of the sobering details, who conveyed them to the American voters in a manner they have so desperately been expecting from George W. Bush.
Need more proof of my polling analysis? With just one debate, John Kerry closed the gap on the Iraq issue with a +10% percentage point swing, and closed the gap on the War on Terrorism issue with a +12% percentage point swing!
The only sobering data from this polling for Kerry supporters, is by a 55%-29% percent margin those surveyed believe Bush is ‘more likely’ to win in November.
I will readily admit my double standard here, as I have previously railed against certain news media outlets putting an inordinate amount of credibility in just one, severely flawed poll. Yet, whether you agree with me or not, us Kerry supporters have been at a great disadvantage throughout this campaign, battling against the great Conservative echo chamber and their firm grip over what the media reports.
But finally, for 90 glaring minutes, all their ‘smoke and mirrors’ could not be employed to mask the incompetence of Bush’s failed leadership.
Bert—
You are up late! As am I it would seem, and while some may have heard of the Gap tune I am certainly familiar with it, and I agree. I only hoe Kerry drops another bomb during the second debate…
Posted by: V. Edward Martin at October 3, 2004 02:47 AMI made a deal with the Supreme Being that if Kerry lost, at least I would get to see the Cubs in the playoffs. Way to go, Supreme Being!
Posted by: Woody Mena at October 3, 2004 08:46 AMIt seems clear the GOP has the better Spin Machine. I always wondered why Bush’s Rallies are for Republicans Only. Now we know. Karl Rove must have known about this weakness. All depends on the other Debates. GOP will try to alter the Rules in favor for Bush. Watch out.
Aldous.
Posted by: Aldous at October 3, 2004 09:23 AMI am looking forward to Edwards painting ‘Big Dick Cheney’ with his lips glued to Bush’s ear and straddling a nuclear missile from whence he gets his power and nickname. It should make for great caricatures in the NY Times.
There is a reason Big Dick Cheney has been kept in the background for three and half years, and Edwards is likely to demonstrate to the public why Big Dick Cheney should have been kept back there.
Now if we only had Nader and Camejo in the debates to demonstrate what a little John, Edwards is, the public would have a fair and reasonable choice at the polls. Jay Leno would have been good to have up there too, to demonstrate what nosy booger Nader is, sticking his proboscus into all kinds of Democratic and Republican affairs. Ironic though that everytime Kerry or Bush lies, Nader’s nose gets nosier.
Posted by: David R. Remer at October 3, 2004 09:52 AMGod, that poll was good to see.
I’d imagine the “likely to win” statistic will move in Kerry’s direction as the ramifications of the debate become more clear.
Posted by: ceejayoz at October 3, 2004 10:52 AMWoody,
As a long time, long suffering (yet again!) Chicago Cubs fan, I would trade another 50 years of such misery, for a John Kerry victory in November!
Posted by: Bert M. Caradine at October 3, 2004 11:57 AMMaybe Bush will bring Cheney with him to the next debate so that when his lips move, something comes out.
Posted by: Mike at October 3, 2004 12:03 PMWoody,
Perhaps if Kerry loses, and since the Cubbies already have lost, God will allow the Red Sox to win the World Series.
Nahh, I think Nader has a better shot at winning than the Sox do. But it all does go to show that God has a lively sense of humor.
Posted by: joebagodonuts at October 3, 2004 05:05 PMBush to be Secretly Coached During Debates
President Bush was fitted with micro receivers in his ear canals in preparation for the next two debates. Sources say the President will be secretly coached with facts and verbal prompts to give the appearance that he is intellectually superior to John Kerry.
The Gallup “Grand Old” Poll now shows Bush and Kerry TIED 49-49 among likely voters.
Posted by: Woody Mena at October 3, 2004 10:56 PM
I’ll try to be non-partisan about this. The polls are definitely volatile—though it’s far too soon to say what’s actually happening. Unlike some on the right, maybe, I don’t totally discount the polls which show a statistically tied race.
The Republican convention was the last event which showed poll swings—and like now, Rasmussen and Zogby didn’t register the move for some time after the non-proportioned polls. Although Kerry is still behind in these polls, their histories of slowness in registering a trend could still present good news for Kerry.
There are serious questions about the Newsweek poll—like the fact that it was a weekend poll (which traditionally favors Democrats) and that it overepresented the Pacific and Mountain time zones (underrepresenting the president’s rock-solid Southern base). Also it was incredibly rushed in the effort to be first out after the debate—their stats were released on the same day part of their polling was done, which is almost unprecendented.
The CBS/NYT poll also suffers from the weekend problem, as well as the fact that it has the smallest sample I have ever seen in a national poll—561 voters.
The Gallup poll (because of its methods, if not its weekend factor) is the most credible of those showing a significantly tightened race. Studying the history of the polls, I’ve usually found this one to be the most believable. If I were a Kerry voter, I’d take the most encouragement from the Gallup.
But however you want to spin these polls, the only current post-debate polls showing a result outside their margins of error are Pew and ABC/WAPO which still show a strong lead for Bush. You have to consider all the polls and balance what they’re saying. On this basis, I think that Kerry did gain ground, but it’s very hard to say how much because of the various inconsitencies in methodology and the dramatic disagreements between polling outfits.
Kerry is statistically tied in some polls and behind outside the margin of error in others. In NO POLL is Kerry currently ahead outside of the margin of error.
I actually think that this time next week we’ll basically know who is going to win one way or another because the significant defining events (barring something like a terrorist attack) will be in the past. Also, the “winner” of the economic
debate likely depends (though it shouldn’t because it will oversimplify the whole picture) on the upcoming release of Friday’s economic numbers.
In any case, we’re at the stage now where these national numbers are a distraction. It wouldn’t matter, for example, if Kerry won every single vote in California or New York. If you want to know where the race really stands, you have to look at the battlegrounds—especially Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
So who is going to win? Who stinkin knows.
Posted by: Martin at October 5, 2004 01:00 AM
