Democrats & Liberals Archives

Not in the Bag, or Even Near It

With all of the discouraging news lately on the election, some denizens of this column (the home team) already seem to be making plans to get Canadian citizenship. While it is almost undeniable that Bush has the lead at this point, it is far from clear how strong his position actually is. Let’s look at the numbers.

The favored hangout for neurotic poll watchers is Polling Report. They have this handy-dandy summary of the latest polls. Here is how the likely voter polls look for the past several days:

Survey EndDate BUSH KERRY

Zogby 9/9 47 45

Time 9/9 54 42

Democracy Corps (D) 9/9 50 47

FOX/Opinion Dynamics 9/8 47 45.

Basically, Time shows Bush stomping Kerry to a pulp, and the other three (including Fox!) show a close race. In the past, Time has oversampled Republicans, so I am inclined to believe the other three.

As we all were reminded the last time around, the real vote is the electoral college. That is also running pretty close. According to this recent report (PDF) from Charlie Cook, Bush is ahead 222 to 207. If you don't trust Charlie because he said the election is "Kerry's to lose", the right-leaning RealClear Politics has a nice summary of state polls. These polls suggest a Bush advantage, but a slight one.

So don't move to Canada yet. You'll freeze your butt off, anyway.


Posted by Woody Mena at September 13, 2004 9:13 AM