July 13, 2004
The Panic Room
Somewhere, in that often cited, yet non-existent manual on Presidential campaign good manners, I’d bet there is a rule obligating a candidate to defer in time and comment, upon the occasion of his opponent’s selection of a Vice-Presidential running mate. Bush’s phone call to John Kerry on that Tuesday Primary evening in which the Dem nominee amassed the needed delegate count, was a reminder of our forefathers resolve to instill civility in our political process. However, unlike every other violation of the honorable and principled conduct befitting the Executive Branch - that this administration promised in the 2000 campaign to restore if elected - Dick Cheney’s F-bombing on the floor of the Senate actually clocks in as a minor infraction.
If such an assault that has met Sen. John Edwards’ selection had been reversed, the proper and formal Republicans would be howling with haughty indignation. However, from this vantage point, the machinations of the White House and Bush supporters these days, are very telling – desperate times call for desperate measures.
The first ever Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll showing a lead by John Kerry was released on July 7th. However, it is nowhere to be found on the Fox News’ website. Bush’s mediocre approval ratings from the very same poll are all that is available online. Even watching Fox News’ morning program for the last several days, there was absolutely no mention of the poll, whatsoever. On the other hand, it looks like the Bush/Cheney ’04 campaign doesn’t need to make an ad buy on Fox, for its ‘First Choice’ TV spots featuring Sen. John McCain. Seeing that, on the day of the Edwards’ announcement, the Fox News’ anchor actually played the spot for Sen. Elizabeth Dole, twice.
In concept and theory, the RNC produced McCain commercial is a work of tactical brilliance. However, in execution and lack of forethought, it weakens under scrutiny. RNC’s Ed Gillespie should have started from the unpleasant, but pragmatic fact, that those McCain Independents he is trying to influence, know full well the Arizona Senator’s disdain for the President - and why. So, for the message - that McCain was Kerry’s first choice, and he instead is supporting the President – to achieve its utmost impact, the Senator would need to say those exact words, directly into the camera, for full effect. Unfortunately, now the McCain soundbite TV spots released by the DNC match up in style, content and, at least, equal credibility.
And now, The New Republic has served up a twist to the defrosting Bin Laden theory, with a purported triple sourced bombshell, ‘July Surprise?’. Apparently, a Bin Laden capture/killing is no longer acceptable, penciled in for an October release date. And, now the Reno 911 posse of the Middle East (the Pakistanis) are being threatened with there promised shipment of F-16 Fighter jets, needing to apprehend Bin Laden with a preferred delivery date of, oh say, month’s end?
It is now quite apparent, that Sen. John Edwards was the Republican’s and Bush campaigns least desirable (most feared?) Dem VP choice. So, hypothetically speaking, what if Edwards was the name leaked to Rupert Murdock instead? Would he have opted to secure a second source confirmation? Of course, being understandably not much in a hurry to share this news, as well as, possibly indifferent as to whether the New York Post would want to claim this scoop?
With a continued strong recovery and two full weeks of relative calm in Iraq, the behavior of this administration and its party seem quite out of sorts. No doubt, the past several weeks that have been dominated by Clinton’s book, Micheal Moore’s film, and now John Edward’s coronation, ain’t been as fun as a Republican fundraiser. But, there has not been a total collapse in the polls, and there is still a ways to go till November.
But, for Bush/Cheney ’04, there’s also the specter of the majority of Electoral College handicapping that gives Kerry the edge; no clear payoff from 3 ½ years of targeted battleground campaigning (Pennsylvania, Michigan); and the creeping realization that Ohio and Florida are no longer hard fought, yet safe. Instead, those battles are more likely to get nasty and expensive. And, if that is not enough to fill a one page PDB - Are you better off now, than a week ago, by refusing to even contemplate what John Edwards could possibly pull off in the South?
So, why the panic?
Posted by Bert M. Caradine at July 13, 2004 09:10 PMThey’re panicked, all right.
It’s interesting the way they’re going about trying to win in November:
- Threatening Pakistan into delivering an HVT during the Democratic convention
- Giving the Pope a medal and asking him to crack down on Catholic legislators
- Ignoring the soaring price of gas until the time-to-market for the Bush/Bandar deal’s cheap gas hits the US in Sept./Oct.
- Telling churches to hand over membership lists to his campaign
- Coercing Afghanistan to hold presidential elections in October despite Karzai’s plan to delay them for lack of security
- And turning over sovereignty to Iraq - Mission accomplished! - despite a lack of security, a democratically elected government, a constitution, an uncorrupt judiciary, or a stable economy.
As we listen to Kerry and Edwards talk about the issues - their policies on education, health care, foreign policy, energy, the environment, etc. - all the Republicans can do is throw mud and character smears. Where is the conservative dialogue on these issues?
Panicked indeed. The Republican position on these issues is as bankrupt as the Treasury they’ve left us. If they can’t win by talking about the issues, their only recourse is to pull out the old dirty trick book.
And let’s not forget the most desperate tactic of all: working to get Ralph Nader on the ballot! That’s quite a vote of confidence in George W., isn’t it? But I suppose it’s understandable, considering the majority of the voters didn’t want him in power in the first place.
Posted by: incredulous at July 14, 2004 12:04 AMBefore you decry the current lack of civility in today’s elections, go back and read some of the ‘shenanigans’ of our founding fathers around election time.
People tend to sugar coat history. It is seldom as pristine as people want it to be.
The Communist Manifesto is built on civility and caring for fellow man. It didn’t stop Stalin from eliminating 30 million of his own people.
I’m predicting Bush by a comfortable margin in November and most of the economic indicators (which usually define an election) are moving in their favor. I heard a rambling Kerry interview this morning that exuded anything but confidence and I’m sure there will be plenty of dirty tricks from them before November.
How do you explain the exclusion of Mrs. Clinton from speaking at the convention? Whenever I hear Democratic leaders talk about her, they talk about her being one of the brightest starts in the Democratic fold. If the Democrats are as unified as you state, why is there no Hilary at the premier Democratic event of the year?
I’m predicting Kerry by a comfortable margin. I’m sure there will be plenty (more) dirty tricks by the Republicans before November.
And your concern for Hillary is touching, but don’t worry. She’ll be there.
Jeff,
If it wasn’t for the Hillary and Whoopi flaps, you on the Right wouldn’t have much to hang your collective outrage hats on now, would you?
I sense your viewing of a Kerry interview would render about the same response of a Kenneth Starr reading Clinton’s bio. Keep in mind, the Bush State Of The Union and Meet The Press interview didn’t inspire confidence, but a drop in his approval ratings, both times.
Lastly, I’d wait till month’s end before I’d count on those economic indicators, and as for that comfortable Bush margin, Kerry just went from double-digits down to 6% down, in Edward’s home state of North Carolina!
Posted by: Bert M. Caradine at July 16, 2004 09:30 PM
