June 13, 2003
Electabilty: Who is. Who isn't. Who's that?
The battle for the Democratic presidential nomination is upon us, and so far we have nine candidates to examine. There exists the potential for at least one or two more late entrants (Joe Biden, Wesley Clark) which would bring the total up to a possible eleven. That is an awful lot of names and faces for the public to remember, but there is some good news. At least three of the current crop of candidates definitely won’t make it out of the first couple of primaries. Dennis Kucinich, Carol Mosely-Braun, and Reverend Al Sharpton don’t seem to possess the necessary qualities to make any of them serious contenders at this point.
Democrats face a tough problem with this election. Unless the party can find a candidate that can take firm stands on issues that matter to the electorate, Mr. Bush will have four more years in office. Candidates need to separate themselves from the pack, and more importantly, separate themselves from the opposition party. I'm not advocating socialists in office, but in order to win the next presidential election, I think the Democratic candidate will have to be demonstrably liberal on social issues, a staunch federalist, and a civil rights supporter. They will have to get out and speak to the nation, and explain why these are good things to be.
As to the individual candidates, Kerry and Dean are the only two that I think qualify as liberal Democrats. Gephardt, though he may win in Iowa, has frankly been in Washington too long to win an election. Lieberman is basically a conservative who calls himself a Democrat. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, as there are certainly a fair number of registered Democrat voters who fall into the same category, so he may win some primaries, but in an incumbent election, I don't think he will be able to carry the day. Graham doesn't have a core issue, and his campaign skills are rusty. He also falls victim to the wolf in sheep's clothing problem. He is really a centrist, which plays well with the voters in Florida, but again, not well with the nation as a whole. Edwards is young, and charismatic, but seems to be focused on organized labor, which is a fairly small number of voters anymore. ( on the order of 9%)
On the whole, it is an interesting field. Who will win in the primaries?
What deciding issues will come forward? Who will surprise us?
Some interesting links:
This USNews summary of the first debate in May provides a good first look at how the candidates will probably shake out.
Global Stewards candidate scorecards, a report on how individual candidates vote/behave on some of the issues.
11 possible candidates!!!!! If the Democrats can’t agree amongst themselves how are they ever going to get a candidate elected? Democrats need a unified front with clear stances on the major issues that face us today. Currently, we have 9 candidates fighting over the little things.
Posted by: joestump at June 13, 2003 04:54 PMYou sound like a good Democratic candidate, shallow and willing to act the part, no matter what, to win office. Give me a break, the Dem’s have no stance and no platform. This is the saddest year of the Dem’s in decades.
They can’t win office by pretending to have passion where none exists.
Grow a spine and then stand on something you believe in, instead on trying to act like it.
Sheesh, is there anyone who claims to be a democrat that has something compelling to say.
Posted by: Scott at June 14, 2003 12:35 AMScott, please be careful with your choice of wording. Some of what you wrote in your comment is approaching flame-worthiness.
We must be cordial and intelligent with each other if we are to make this blog a success. Telling someone to “grow a spine” is borderline in my view. Please, let’s keep the debate intelligent. Thanks.
Posted by: Editor at June 14, 2003 01:30 AMScott,
This particular post was intended to promote discussion on the Democratic presidential candidates, not my personal qualifications to run for office. The only stand I take in this post is on which qualities I believe a successful candidate will need to have to win the election in November, and I believe that I was pretty clear cut in that regard.
I agree with you that the Democrats need to take a stand on issues. I’ve said as much in piece. If you would like to discuss the issues, instead of merely raving about them, that would be great, but please keep it rational. If you have advice about how to improve my writing, that is welcome. I think the Editor’s comment covered the rest.
thanks,
crutan
Posted by: crutan at June 14, 2003 09:18 AMScott,
Although I think your comments are a little harsh they do strike at the heart of the problem currently facing the Democrats, which is what I commented on earlier. If we, the Democrats, wish to have a snowball’s chance in hell at winning this election we will need to have a unified platform with well outlined stances on the issues.
—Joe
Don’t be too quick to dismiss Dennis Kucinich. While he’s definitely not a front-runner, he has some qualities all the other Democratic hopefuls so far lack, including a real spine. At party rallies, labor union gatherings, teacher meetings — in short, where the traditional Democratic stronghold has met — Kucinich has been blowing peoples’ socks off. He has a clear agenda on which he is consistent and he’s a charismatic speaker.
Another thing he has going for him is that he’s making excellent use of the Internet. I think it’s just possible that in a close election, that factor could weigh heavily in election outcomes because of the immediacy of the medium.
I’ll be writing more about that topic over time.
Just keep half an eye (ok, maybe just a quarter of an eye for now) on the Kucinich campaign. It’ll be a shock if he takes the nomination but as he gathers momentum, with the right exposure and early endorsements, he could emerge from the pack early enough to sweep the other candidates aside.
Let me be the first Democrat to stand up and get a spine. I believe in Peace, Prosperity, Health Care and Education for all. I believe in fairness and equality. I believe in a nation that cares for all it’s citizens equally and equitably. I believe in a nation where those who have gained the most from our political and economic structure willingly help those who are less priveleged and less fortunate.
Now, is that so hard?
Posted by: grover at June 15, 2003 02:50 PMHey, grover…. You aren’t the first. You sound like Cong. Kucinich.
I would say Howard Deans got quite the spine in him…
Just take a look at the records of his speeches and statements. He’s not a man whose afraid to speak his mind and make his positions known
www.howarddean.tv
Posted by: Keith at June 16, 2003 11:25 AMKucinich Can Win!
http://www.davidswanson.org/columns/kucinich.htm
